For years, Ethiopia was the poster child of African economic success. Double-digit GDP growth, massive infrastructure projects, a booming capital city, and a young population driving ambition. Addis Ababa felt like the continent’s next big hub. But today, in late 2025, that narrative feels like ancient history. The country is sliding—fast—into chaos that increasingly resembles the slow-motion collapse we watched in Afghanistan before the Taliban takeover. Hyperinflation, ethnic fracturing, a government that seems more interested in settling scores than governing, and a society where hope is running on fumes. This isn’t just another “Africa is struggling” story. This feels existential.
From Economic Miracle to Economic Nightmare
Remember when Ethiopia was regularly cited alongside Rwanda as one of the continent’s growth darlings? Between 2004 and 2019, real GDP growth averaged over 10% a year. Foreign direct investment poured in. Chinese-built railways and industrial parks sprang up everywhere. The Ethiopian Airlines hub in Addis became a symbol of African competence.
Fast-forward to now: the Ethiopian birr has lost roughly two-thirds of its value in the past year alone after the government floated the currency under IMF pressure. A single US dollar that bought you 55 birr in early 2024 now buys over 190 birr on the parallel market. Coffee, bread, fuel—prices triple overnight. Middle-class families who proudly bought apartments in Addis five years ago can no longer afford cooking oil. The psychological impact of that kind of devaluation can’t be overstated; it erodes trust in the state itself.
Ethnic Powder Keg
The Tigray War (2020–2022) was supposed to be the “final” conflict. It wasn’t. Violence has metastasized. Amhara militias (Fano) are fighting the federal army in what many now call a full-blown insurgency. In Oromia, the OLA continues its rebellion. Parts of the Somali Region are lawless. Massacres, drone strikes on civilian areas, and forced displacement have become disturbingly routine. Over 3 million Ethiopians are internally displaced—higher than Syria at its worst moments.
The government’s response? Emergency decrees, internet blackouts, and increasingly authoritarian rhetoric that labels any critic a “terrorist.” Sound familiar?
Bulldozers in the Capital
Perhaps the most chilling recent development is the systematic demolition of homes in Addis Ababa. Under the guise of “corridor development” and “illegal construction,” tens of thousands of houses—many of them middle-class properties bought legally—have been razed with little or no compensation. Families are given 24–48 hours to evacuate before bulldozers arrive, often escorted by federal troops. Videos circulating on social media show elderly women sitting in the rubble of what used to be their life savings.
This isn’t urban planning. It feels like collective punishment and a deliberate attempt to reshape the capital’s demographic makeup. When people lose the one asset that represented their climb out of poverty—their house—something breaks inside a society.
Corruption and Cronyism on Steroids
The revolving door of incompetent and allegedly corrupt officials is staggering. Positions that require expertise—central bank, finance ministry, state-owned enterprises—are filled with loyalists who often have no relevant qualifications. Billions in foreign loans disappear into “grand projects” that either never finish or become white elephants. Meanwhile, the same ruling elite fly private jets and send their kids to universities in Dubai and London.
Ordinary Ethiopians see it every day: police demanding bribes just to let you pass a checkpoint, civil servants who won’t stamp a document unless you “buy them coffee,” hospitals with no medicine unless you pay under the table. The social contract is shredded.
The Afghanistan Parallel
Afghanistan didn’t collapse in August 2021 when Kabul fell. It collapsed over years—through corruption that hollowed out the army, ethnic and tribal favoritism that alienated huge chunks of the population, economic mismanagement that left soldiers unpaid and civilians hopeless, and a government that lost legitimacy in the eyes of its own people long before the Taliban walked in.
Ethiopia is checking the same boxes, just on a compressed timeline.
A country of 120+ million people, ancient pride, and strategic importance doesn’t have to end this way. But the warning lights are flashing red. When a currency collapses, when the army is fighting its own citizens on multiple fronts, when people wake up to find their homes bulldozed by their own government—that’s not “growing pains.” That’s the sound of a nation coming apart at the seams.
The question isn’t whether Ethiopia is in crisis. It clearly is.
The question is whether anyone—inside or outside the country—still has the will, the vision, and the courage to stop the free fall before it becomes irreversible.
Because once a country crosses that line, history is unforgiving. Just ask the Afghans.
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