Tigray on the Brink: Renewed Tensions and Uncertainty

Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region is facing growing instability, raising fears of renewed conflict. Political tensions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have heightened, leaving residents anxious. Many have rushed to withdraw money and stockpile food due to soaring prices, while fuel shortages have led to a sharp increase in black market rates. The memory of Ethiopia’s deadly war, which claimed around 600,000 lives, remains fresh, intensifying panic among the population.

At the heart of the crisis is a power struggle between two factions within the TPLF. One side is led by Debretsion Gebremichael, who heads the party’s leadership, while the other is led by Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray Interim Regional Administration (TIRA). The division has reached a critical point, with each faction deeming the other illegitimate. The Ethiopian Electoral Commission has set a deadline for the TPLF to hold a formal congress, or risk losing its status as a legal party, which could escalate tensions further.

Observers suggest that Ethiopia’s central government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, may be benefiting from this internal TPLF conflict. By keeping Tigray politically unstable, the federal government ensures that the region remains too divided to challenge its authority. The lack of implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, which ended the 2022 war, has also fueled tensions. Many displaced people have not been able to return to their homes due to the continued presence of Eritrean troops and Amhara militias.

Experts warn that the situation could spiral into violence, potentially spreading beyond Tigray. Some fear that the Ethiopian military in Tigray is becoming increasingly politicized, with commanders aligning with different factions. External actors such as Eritrea or Sudan could also become involved, further complicating the crisis. Ethiopia’s strained relationships with neighboring countries add to the risk of broader regional instability.

Despite the looming threat of war, some analysts believe the conflict may unfold as a "gradual coup," where rival TPLF factions seize control of local governments rather than engage in full-scale combat. However, corruption, illegal gold smuggling, and internal divisions continue to fuel distrust among Tigrayans. As tensions rise, the future of Tigray—and Ethiopia as a whole—remains uncertain.